Ndezvipi zviri kuitika pamitengo uye zvinhu zvikuru zvinopesvedzera graphitized petroleum coke?

Kuongororwa Kwemafambiro Emitengo Uye Zvinhu Zvinokanganisa Graphitized Petroleum Coke (Kubva Mumaonero a2025)

I. Mafambiro Emitengo: Kuwedzera Kwenguva Pfupi Kunoteverwa Nekusiyana, Kunotsigirwa Nenguva Refu Nekudiwa Kwezvinhu

1. Kushanda Kwemitengo muna 2025

• Coke ine sarufa shoma inotungamira mukuwedzera kwehuwandu: Nekuda kwekuwedzera kwekudiwa kwezvinhu zveanode mumotokari itsva dzine simba, mitengo yecoke ine sarufa shoma yakakwira nekukurumidza kutanga kwa2025. Semuenzaniso, mutengo wecoke ine sarufa shoma kubva kuFushun Petrochemical wakawedzera kubva pa3,000 yuan/tani muna Zvita 2024 kusvika pa3,500 yuan/tani muna Ndira 2025, nemitengo yemamwe maokisheni inodarika 4,200 yuan/tani.
• Mutengo we sulfur coke unobva pakati kusvika pakakwirira unoteverawo: mutengo we mid-sulfur coke waiva pakati pe 2,400 ne 2,900 yuan/tani, nepo high-sulfur coke yaibva pa 1,300 kusvika 1,800 yuan/tani. Kunyangwe kuwedzera kwavo kwakaderera pane kwe low-sulfur coke, vakaratidza kuwedzera kwakanyanya.
• Zvinotsigirwa nemusiyano wekudiwa kwezvinhu: Musiyano wekudiwa kwezvinhu we870,000 matani muna 2025 unotarisirwa kuwedzera mutengo wepagore we3,000–4,000 yuan/tani.

2. Tariro yegore ra2026

• Kukwira kwemitengo kuri pakati nepakati: Musiyano wekudiwa kwemagetsi nemagetsi unotarisirwa kudzikira kusvika pamatani 660,000, asi chikamu chekudiwa kwemagetsi matsva chinotarisirwa kukwira kusvika pa21%, zvichisundira avhareji yemutengo wegore negore kusvika pa3,200–4,200 yuan/tani, necoke ine sarufa shoma inogona kudarika 4,000 yuan/tani.
• Kusiyana kwechimiro: Mitengo ye coke ine sarufa yakawanda icharamba yakaderera nekuda kwekuwanikwa kwayo kwakakwana, ichichinja-chinja pakati pe1,500–2,000 yuan/tani.

II. Zvinhu Zvikuru Zvinopesvedzera: Kudyidzana Kwematatu Kwekuda, Kupa, uye Mutemo

1. Rutivi rweKudiwa: Kukura kweMagadzirirwo Kunotungamirwa neChimurenga Chesimba Idzva

• Zvinhu zveLithium-ion battery anode: Muna 2024, kudiwa kwezvinhu zveanode kwaive 8% yekushandiswa kwepetroleum coke, uye chikamu ichi chinotarisirwa kukwira kusvika 11% panosvika 2026. Kuwedzera kugona kutsva muzvikamu zvitsva zvemagetsi uye nzvimbo dzekuchengetera simba dzinodarika matani mamiriyoni 5.96 pagore kuchawedzera zvakananga kudiwa kwe low-sulfur coke.
• Kusasimba muzvikamu zvechinyakare: Kudiwa kwemafuta muzvikamu zvekabhoni nemafuta kuri kuramba kuchiderera, nesimba rekutenga rakaderera nekuda kwekushaya purofiti. Semuenzaniso, makambani ekabhoni akadzikisa kutenga pakati pekushaikwa kwemafuta muindasitiri yearuminiyamu (mitengo yearuminiyamu ichichinja muna 2025), nepo chikamu chemafuta chakatsiva coke ine sarufa yakawanda nemarasha akachipa (avhareji inosvika 500 yuan/tani muna 2025).

2. Rutivi rweKupa: Kukura Kwesimba Rishoma uye Kumanikidzwa Kwemari

• Kuwedzerwa kwesimba remagetsi mudzimba kunononoka: Hapana mayuniti matsva ekubheka akanonoka akarongerwa gore ra2025, uye mitengo yakakwira yekupinza mafuta kubva kunze kwenyika (inotanga kushanda musi wa1 Ndira, 2025) yakaderedza mitengo yekushanda munzvimbo dzakazvimiririra dzekunatsa mafuta, nepo vagadziri vemafuta vari muShandong vachidzikira zvakanyanya, zvichikanganisa kugadzirwa kwemafuta mudzimba.
• Kusawanikwa kwakakwana kwemafuta kunze kwenyika: Kugadzirwa kwemafuta ecoke ane sarufa shoma kwaderera muEurope nemuUnited States nekuda kwehuwandu hwakawanda hwesarufa mumafuta asina kucheneswa, zvichikonzera kuti mafuta aya agare achishandiswa zvakanyanya kunze kwenyika.

3. Rutivi rweMutemo: Zvipingamupinyi zviviri kubva kuMitemo yeZvakatipoteredza neKutengeserana

• Zvirambidzo zvekugadzirwa kwenzvimbo: Kudiwa kwe coke ine sarufa shoma (ine sulfur iri pasi pe0.5%) kwakawedzera nekuda kwekutevedzera mitemo yezvakatipoteredza, nepo maindasitiri ane kabhoni yakawanda akadai se electrolytic aluminum akatarisana nekuderedzwa kwekugadzirwa pasi pemitemo yepamutemo, zvichikanganisa zvisina kunanga kudiwa kwe coke ine petroleum.
• Kusawirirana kwekutengeserana: Kunyange hazvo kuderera kwekuda kwemusika wepasi rose kana kuchinja kwemitengo yekuchinjana kwemari kuchigona kukanganisa mitengo yemuno, kugadziriswa kwemitero yemafuta emafuta muna 2025 kwakakwidza zvakananga mitengo yemakambani akazvimiririra anonatsa mafuta, zvichiva chinhu chikuru chinoita kuti pave nekuderera kwemitengo yemagetsi.

4. Rutivi rweMutengo: Kutapurirana kweKuchinja-chinja kweMitengo yeOiri Isina Kugadzirwa

• Kuderera kwemutengo wemafuta: Avhareji yemutengo wemafuta asina kucheneswa eBrent inotarisirwa kuva 67/barrelin2025andmayfallto51/barrel muna 2026 (EIA yakafanotaura), izvo zvichaderedza kukwira kwemitengo yemafuta epetroleum coke.
• Kuchinja kwepurofiti mufekitori: Kana mitengo yemafuta asina kucheneswa yakakwira, vafekitori vanowedzera kugadzirwa kwemafuta mashoma kuburikidza nekunonoka kubika, zvichiwedzera kuwanikwa kwemafuta ane coke. Kusiyana neizvi, petroleum coke inova imwe yepurofiti, ichitsigira mitengo.

III. Njodzi Nemikana Yeramangwana

1. Njodzi Dzakashata

• Kudzikira kusingatarisirwi kwemitengo yemafuta epasi rose: Kana avhareji yemutengo wemafuta asina kucheneswa eBrent ikadonha pasi pemadhora makumi mashanu pabhareri, mitengo yemafuta ecoke inogona kudzikira.
• Kudiwa kusina kusimba kupfuura zvaitarisirwa: Kuwanda kwezvinhu zve lithium-ion battery anode kana 超预期 (zvisingatarisirwi zvakanyanya) kugadzirwa kwe electrolytic aluminum kunogona kudzikisa kudiwa.

2. Njodzi Dzakasiyana

• Kudzikiswa kwekugadzirwa kwemafuta munzvimbo dzakazvimiririra dzinochenesa: Kana mitengo yekushanda munzvimbo dzakazvimiririra dzinochenesa mafuta dziri muShandong ikadonha pasi pe50%, kudzikira kwehuwandu hwemafuta anogona kuwedzera mitengo.
• Kudiwa kwesimba idzva kwakasimba kupfuura zvaitarisirwa: Kana chikamu chezvinhu zve lithium-ion battery anode chikakwira kusvika 15%, mitengo ye petroleum coke yepamusoro inogona kudarika 4,500 yuan/tani.

IV. Mhedziso: Mikana yeMaumbirwo Pakati Pekusagadzikana Kwakanyanya

Mitengo yemafuta ecoke ane graphitized inotarisirwa kuramba ichichinja-chinja mumakore maviri anotevera, nemafuta ecoke ane sulfur shoma achizove chinhu chikuru chinosimudzira kukura kwemafuta nekuda kwekudiwa kwesimba idzva, nepo mafuta ecoke ane sulfur ari pakati nepakati kusvika akakwira achaona kuwedzera kushoma nekuda kwekusagadzikana kwezvinhu muzvikamu zvechinyakare. Vanoisa mari vanofanira kunyatsoongorora:

• Kufambira mberi muchikamu chitsva chemagetsi (semuenzaniso, kutengeswa kwemotokari dzemagetsi, kutangwa kwemapurojekiti ekuchengetedza magetsi);
• Mwero wekushanda kwefekitori yekucheneserwa kwemvura mudzimba (kunyanya shanduko dzemitemo dzinokanganisa vachenese vakazvimiririra);
• Kuchinja-chinja kwemitengo yemafuta epasi rose (mhedzisiro yekufambiswa kwemitengo);
• Kusimba kwekushandiswa kwemitemo yezvakatipoteredza (zvichikanganisa kuwanikwa kwezvinhu uye kudiwa kwazvo).

Zvichienderana nezvinangwa zveChina zve "dual carbon" uye shanduko yesimba, musika we petroleum coke wakaiswa graphitized uri kuchinja chimiro kubva pamafuta echinyakare kuenda kuzvinhu zvitsva zvesimba, kushomeka kwe low-sulfur coke kuchipa kugadzikana kwemitengo kwenguva refu.