New Delhi: Hupfumi hweIndia huri kuderera uye maindasitiri anovimba zvakanyanya nemafuta asina kucheneswa akadai sendege, ngarava, kutakura zvinhu mumigwagwa nechitima zvinogona kuwedzera kubva mukudonha kamwe kamwe kwemitengo yemafuta asina kucheneswa nekuda kwedenda re coronavirus muChina, iyo inonyanya kupinza mafuta kunze kwenyika, vakadaro nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi, vakuru vakuru nenyanzvi.
Nekunge maindasitiri akasiyana-siyana ari kuchinja nzira dzawo pakati pekuderedzwa kwezvinodiwa zvesimba nekuda kwedenda re coronavirus, makambani makuru anotenga mafuta akadai seIndia ari kutsvaga kutengeserana kuri nani. India ndiyo nyika yechitatu pakutenga mafuta akawanda pasi rose uye ndiyo nyika yechina pakutenga gasi rechisikigo rakanyungudutswa (LNG).
Musika wemafuta uri kutarisana nemamiriro ezvinhu anonzi contango, apo mitengo yemafuta yakaderera pane zvibvumirano zvemangwana.
"Kufungidzirwa kwemasangano akati wandei kuri kuratidza kuti kudiwa kwemafuta asina kubikwa muChina mukota yekutanga kuchadzikira ne15-20%, zvichikonzera kudzikira kwekudiwa kwemafuta asina kubikwa muChina pasi rose. Izvi zviri kuratidzwa nemitengo yemafuta asina kubikwa muChina neLNG, izvo zvese zviri zvakanaka kuIndia. Izvi zvichabatsira India muhupfumi hwayo nekudzivirira kushomeka kwemari muakaundi yayo, kuchengetedza hurongwa hwekutsinhana hwakagadzikana uye inflation," akadaro Debasish Mishra, mubatsiri weDeloitte India.
Sangano reInternational Energy Agency (IEA) pamwe nesangano reOpec, vaderedza mukana wekukura kwemafuta pasi rose mushure mekupararira kwe coronavirus.
"Matunhu akadai sendege, pendi, zviumbwa zvesimbi, zvimwe zvigadzirwa zvemaindasitiri, nezvimwewo zvingabatsirwa nemitengo isina kuipa," Mishra akawedzera.
India inzvimbo huru yekunatsa zvinhu muAsia, ine huwandu hwematani anopfuura mamiriyoni 249.4 pagore (mtpa) kuburikidza nefekitori makumi maviri nematatu. Mutengo webhasikiti reIndia remafuta asina kubikwa, iro raive paavhareji yemadhora makumi mashanu nematanhatu nemakumi mana nemapfumbamwe nemakumi mana nemapfumbamwe emadhora pabhareri muFY18 neFY19, zvichiteerana, raive paavhareji yemadhora makumi matanhatu nemashanu nemakumi mashanu nemaviri nemakumi mashanu nemaviri muna Zvita 2019, zvichienderana nedata kubva kuPetroleum Planning and Analysis Cell. Mutengo waive $54.93 pabhareri musi wa13 Kukadzi. Bhasikiti reIndia rinomiririra avhareji yemafuta asina kubikwa muOman, Dubai neBrent.
"Kare, mutengo wemafuta usina njodzi wakaona purofiti yendege ichikwira zvakanyanya," akadaro Kinjal Shah, mutevedzeri wemutungamiri wemakambani akaongororwa kukambani yeICRA Ltd.
Munguva yekuderera kwehupfumi, indasitiri yekufambisa nendege muIndia yakaona kukura kwevafambi ne3.7% muna 2019 kusvika pamamiriyoni zana nemakumi mana nemana evafambi.
"Iyi ingava nguva yakanaka yekuti makambani endege adzorere kurasikirwa. Makambani endege anogona kushandisa izvi kudzoreredza kurasikirwa, ukuwo vafambi vanogona kushandisa nguva ino kuronga kufamba sezvo mutengo wematikiti endege uchava nyore kushandisa," akadaro Mark Martin, muvambi uye CEO weMartin Consulting Llc, mupi wezano wezvendege.
Kupararira kwechirwere chekoronavirus muChina kwakamanikidza makambani emagetsi ikoko kuti amise zvibvumirano zvekutumira zvinhu uye kuderedza zvinobuda. Izvi zvakakanganisa mitengo yemafuta epasi rose pamwe nemitengo yekutumira zvinhu. Kusawirirana kwekutengeserana uye kudzikira kwehupfumi hwenyika zviri kukonzerawo matambudziko pamisika yemagetsi.
Vakuru veIndian Chemical Council, sangano reindasitiri, vakati India inovimba neChina kuti iwane makemikari muzvikamu zvakasiyana-siyana, nemugove wenyika iyoyo muzvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika uri pakati pe10-40%. Chikamu chepetrochemical chinoshanda semusana wezvimwe zvikamu zvakasiyana-siyana zvekugadzira nekugadzira zvinhu zvakaita sezvivakwa, mota, machira nezvinhu zvinogara kwenguva refu zvinotengeswa nevatengi.
"Mhando dzakasiyana-siyana dzezvinhu zvakagadzirwa nemakambani anobatsira zviri kutengwa kubva kuChina. Kunyangwe, kusvika pari zvino, makambani anotenga zvinhu izvi asina kukanganiswa zvakanyanya, nzira yavo yekugovera zvinhu iri kuoma. Saka, vanogona kunzwa shanduko mune ramangwana kana mamiriro ezvinhu akasavandudzika," akadaro Sudhir Shenoy, mutungamiriri wenyika uye CEO weDow Chemical International Pvt. Ltd.
Izvi zvinogona kubatsira vagadziri vemishonga yerabha, ma electrode egrafiti, black yekabhoni, madhayi uye pigments sezvo zvinhu zvishoma zvinotengeswa kubva kuChina zvinogona kumanikidza vatengi kuti vazvitengere munharaunda.
Kuderera kwemitengo yezvinhu zvisina kuchena kunounzawo mashoko akanaka kuhurumende pakati pekushomeka kwemari inowanikwa uye kushomeka kwemari kuri kuramba kuchikwira. Zvichitevera kukura kuri kuita mari inowanikwa, gurukota rezvemari Nirmala Sitharaman, pavakapa bhajeti reUnion, vakashandisa mutemo wekutiza kuti vatore mukana we50-basis points mukushomeka kwemari kwegore ra2019-20, zvichiita kuti fungidziro yakagadziriswa isvike pa3.8% yeGDP.
Gavhuna weRBI, Shaktikanta Das, neMugovera akati kudzikira kwemitengo yemafuta kuchave nemhedzisiro yakanaka pakuwedzera kwemitengo. "Kukwira kukuru kuri kubva pakuwedzera kwemitengo yechikafu, kureva miriwo nezvinhu zveprotein. Kuwedzera kwemitengo yemafuta kwawedzera zvishoma nekuda kwekugadziriswa kwemitero yemafoni," akawedzera.
Yaremerwa nekuderera kwechikamu chekugadzira, kugadzirwa kwemafekitori muIndia kwakadzikira muna Zvita, ukuwo inflation yezvitoro yakawedzera nekukurumidza kwemwedzi wechitanhatu wakatevedzana muna Ndira, zvichikonzera kusava nechokwadi nezvekuvandudzwa kwehupfumi hutsva. Kukura kwehupfumi hweIndia kunofungidzirwa neNational Statistical Office kuti kuchasvika padanho rakaderera remakore gumi nerimwe re5% muna 2019-20 nekuda kwekunonoka kwekushandiswa kwemari nekudyara.
Madan Sabnavis, mukuru wezvehupfumi kuCARE Ratings, akati kuderera kwemitengo yemafuta kwave chikomborero kuIndia. "Zvisinei, kumanikidzwa kwakakwira hakugoni kurambwa, nekuderedzwa kwakati kunotarisirwa neOPEC nedzimwe nyika dziri kutumira kunze kwenyika. Nokudaro, tinofanira kutarisa kuti tingawedzera sei kutengesa kunze kwenyika uye kutarisa kushandisa chikonzero chekudzikira kwemitengo yemafuta, kureva coronavirus, uye kusundira zvinhu zvedu kuChina, uku tichitsvaga dzimwe nzira dzekutengesa kunze kwenyika. Nerombo rakanaka, nekuda kwekufamba kwenguva refu kwemari, kumanikidzwa kwerupee hakusi dambudziko," akawedzera.
Vachinetseka nezvemamiriro ekudiwa kwemafuta, Opec inogona kufambisira mberi musangano wayo waKurume 5-6, neboka rayo rehunyanzvi richikurudzira kuderedzwa kwechinguvana kwechirongwa cheOpec+.
"Nekuda kwekutengeserana kwakanaka kwezvinhu zvinobva kuMabvazuva, kukanganisa kwezviteshi zvemakontena zvakaita seJNPT (Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust) kuchave kwakanyanya, ukuwo kukanganisa kwezviteshi zveMundra kuchave kushoma," akadaro Jagannarayan Padmanabhan, director uye mutungamiriri wezvekufambisa nekufambisa zvinhu kuCrisil Infrastructure Advisory. "Chimwe chinhu ndechekuti zvimwe zvezvigadzirwa zvinogona kuchinjika kubva kuChina kuenda kuIndia kwenguva pfupi."
Kunyange hazvo kukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu zvisina kuchena nekuda kwekukwira kwekusawirirana pakati peUS neIran kwakaitika kwenguva pfupi, denda re coronavirus pamwe nekuderedzwa kwezvigadzirwa munyika dzeOPEC zvave kukonzera kusava nechokwadi.
"Kunyangwe mitengo yemafuta iri pasi, mwero wekutsinhana (rupee kana dhora) uri kukwira, izvo zviri kukonzerawo mitengo yakakwira. Tinonzwa takasununguka kana rupee iri pakati pe65-70 nedhora. Sezvo chikamu chikuru chemari yatinoshandisa, kusanganisira yemafuta endege, ichibhadharwa nemadhora, mari yekune dzimwe nyika chinhu chakakosha pamari yatinoshandisa," akadaro mumwe mukuru wekambani yendege ine bhajeti iri kuNew Delhi asina kuda kudomwa zita rake.
Zvechokwadi, kuwedzera kwemutengo wemafuta kunogona zvakare kukwidza mitengo iyo inogona kuwedzera kukwira kwemitengo uye kukanganisa kudiwa.
Kukwira kwemitengo yemafuta kunewo kukanganisa kusina kunanga kuburikidza nekuwedzera kwemitengo yekugadzira nekutakura uye kunowedzera kukwira kwemitengo yechikafu. Chero kuedza kuderedza mutoro wevatengi nekudzikisa mutero wemafuta epeturu nedhiziri kunokanganisa kuunganidzwa kwemari.
Ravindra Sonavane, Kalpana Pathak, Asit Ranjan Mishra, Shreya Nandi, Rhik Kundu, Navadha Pandey naGireesh Chandra Prasad vakatsigira nyaya iyi.
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Nguva yekutumira: Kubvumbi-28-2021