New DelHI: Hupfumi hweIndia husina kusimba uye maindasitiri anovimba zvakanyanya nemafuta asina kuchena akadai sendege, kutakura zvinhu, migwagwa uye njanji angangowana kubva mukudonha kwakaerekana kwemitengo yemafuta asina kuchena nekuda kwedenda reCoronavirus muChina, mutengesi mukuru wemafuta pasi rose, akadaro vehupfumi, vatungamiriri vakuru uye nyanzvi.
Nemaindasitiri akasiyana ari kugadzirisa hurongwa hwavo pakati pekufanotaura kwesimba kuri kudzikiswa nekuda kwedenda re coronavirus, vatengesi vakuru vemafuta seIndia vari kutsvaga kutyaira zvirinani. India ndiyo yechitatu pakukura pakutenga oiri pasi rose uye mutengi wechina pakukura weliquefied natural gas (LNG).
Musika wemafuta parizvino wakatarisana nemamiriro ezvinhu anonzi contango, umo mitengo yenzvimbo yakadzikira pane zvibvumirano zveramangwana.
"Kufungidzira kwakaitwa nemasangano akati wandei kunoratidza kuti kudiwa kweChinese Q1 kuchadzikira ne15-20%, zvichikonzera kudzikira kwemitengo yezvinhu zvisina tsarukano neLNG, izvo zviri zviviri zvisina kunaka kuIndia. Izvi zvichabatsira India mune yayo macroeconomic parameters nekuve nekushomeka kweakaunti iripo mukuchinjana, kuchengetedza uye kudzoreredza," akadaro Miqu. shamwari paDeloitte India.
Sangano reInternational Energy Agency (IEA) neOrganisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) vadzikisa maonero ekukura kwemafuta epasi rose zvichitevera kubuda kwe coronavirus.
"Zvikamu zvakaita sendege, pendi, ceramics, zvimwe zvigadzirwa zvemaindasitiri, nezvimwe zvingabatsirika kubva muhutongi hwemitengo," Mishra akawedzera.
India inzvimbo yakakosha yekunatsa yekuAsia, ine huwandu hwakaiswa hunodarika 249.4 miriyoni matani pagore (mtpa) kuburikidza ne23 refineries. Mutengo wedengu reIndia reutsvina, wakasvika madhora makumi mashanu neshanu nemazana mana nemakumi mana nemakumi matatu nemazana matanhatu nemadhora makumi matanhatu nesere padhiramu muFY18 neFY19, zvichiteerana, wakasvika madhora makumi matanhatu neshanu muna Zvita 2019, maererano nedatha kubva kuPetroleum Planning and Analysis Cell. Mutengo wacho waive $54.93 dhiramu musi wa13 Kukadzi. Dengu reIndia rinomiririra avhareji yeOman, Dubai neBrent crude.
"Munguva yakapfuura, mutengo wemafuta wakaona purofiti yendege ichiwedzera zvakanyanya," akadaro Kinjal Shah, mutevedzeri wemutungamiri wemakambani kukambani yemitengo ICRA Ltd.
Pakati pekudzikira kwehupfumi, indasitiri yekufambisa ndege yeIndia yakaona kukura kwe3.7% yevatakuri muna 2019 kusvika 144 miriyoni.
"Iyi inogona kunge iri nguva yakanaka yekuti vendege vadzore kurasikirwa. Ndege dzinogona kushandisa izvi kudzoreredza kurasikirwa, nepo vafambi vanogona kushandisa nguva ino kuronga mafambiro sezvo mutengo wematikiti endege ungave wakanyanya kushamwaridzana," akadaro Mark Martin, muvambi uye CEO paMartin Consulting Llc, chipangamazano wendege.
Kubuda kwegoronavirus muChina kwakamanikidza mafemu emagetsi ipapo kumisa zvibvumirano zvekuendesa uye kuderedza zvinobuda. Izvi zvakanganisa mitengo yemafuta epasi rose uye mitengo yekutumira. Kunetsana kwekutengeserana uye kuderera kwehupfumi hwenyika kune zvakare kuwanda pamisika yemagetsi.
Vakuru veIndia Chemical Council, sangano reindasitiri, vakati India inotsamira kuChina kune makemikari mukati mekukosha kweketani, uye chikamu chenyika iyi mune zvekunze kubva pa10-40%. Iyo petrochemical sector inoshanda semusana kune mamwe akasiyana ekugadzira uye asiri ekugadzira zvikamu zvakaita sezvivakwa, mota, machira uye zvevatengi zvinogara.
"Mhando dzakasiyana-siyana dzakagadzirwa uye vamiriri vanounzwa kubva kuChina." Kunyangwe, kusvika parizvino, makambani ari kuunza izvi haana kunyanya kukanganiswa, cheni yavo yekugovera iri kuoma. Saka, vanogona kunzwa kukanganisa kuenda kumberi kana mamiriro akasaita," akadaro Sudhir Shenoy, mutungamiri wenyika uye CEO weDow Chemical International Pvt. Ltd.
Izvi zvinogona kubatsira vagadziri vemumba vemakemikari erabha, magraphite electrodes, kabhoni nhema, dhayi uye pigment sezvo kuderera kweChinese kunze kwenyika kungamanikidza vatengi kuti vazviwane munharaunda.
Mitengo yakadzikira inounzawo mashoko akanaka kuhomwe yehurumende pakati pekushaikwa kwemari yekuwana mari uye kushomeka kwemari kuri kuramba kuchikwira. Nekuda kwekukura kuri kuita muunganidzwa wemari, gurukota rezvemari, Nirmala Sitharaman, vachipa bhajeti reMubatanidzwa, vakakoka chirevo chekutiza kuti chitore danho remakumi mashanu mukushomeka kwemari ye2019-2020, vachitora fungidziro yakadzokororwa kusvika 3.8% yeGDP.
Gavhuna weRBI Shaktikanta Das neMugovera akati kuderera kwemitengo yemafuta kuchave nemhedzisiro yakanaka painflation. "Chinhu chikuru chiri kuuya kubva mukukwira kwemitengo yezvekudya, kureva miriwo uye mapuroteni zvinhu. Core inflation yakwira zvishoma nekuda kwekudzokororwa kwemitengo yemafoni," akawedzera.
Zvichiremerwa nekudzikira kwechikamu chekugadzira, fekitori yeIndia yakapihwa chibvumirano muna Zvita, ukuwo inflation yezvitoro yakawedzera kwemwedzi wechitanhatu wakateedzana muna Ndira, zvichimutsa kusava nechokwadi nezvekugadzirisa hupfumi hutsva. Kukura kwehupfumi hweIndia kunofungidzirwa neNational Statistical Office kurova pasi pemakore gumi nerimwe kubva pa5% muna 2019-2020 pamusana pekushandisa kwakashata uye kudiwa kwekudyara.
Madan Sabnavis, mukuru wezvehupfumi kuCARE Ratings, akati mitengo yakaderera yemafuta yave chikomborero kuIndia. "Zvisinei, kukwira kwepamusoro hakugone kubviswa, nekumwe kuderedzwa kunotarisirwa neOpec nedzimwe nyika dzinotengesa kunze." Naizvozvo, isu tinofanirwa kutarisa nezve nzira yekuwedzera kutengesa kunze kwenyika uye kutarisa kuwedzera chikonzero chekudzikira kwemitengo yemafuta, kureva, coronavirus, uye kusundira zvinhu zvedu kuChina, tichitsvaga dzimwe nzira dzevanopa zvinhu kunze kwenyika.
Iine hanya nemamiriro ekudiwa kwemafuta, OPEC inogona kufambisira mberi musangano wayo kubva 5-6 Kurume, nepaneli yayo yehunyanzvi ichikurudzira kudimburwa kwechinguvana kuhurongwa hweOpec +.
"Nekuda kwekutengeserana kwakanaka kubva kunze kwenyika kubva kuMabvazuva, kukanganisa kwezvikepe zvemidziyo seJNPT (Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust) kuchave kwakakwira, ukuwo kukanganiswa kwechiteshi cheMundra kuchave kushoma," akadaro Jagannarayan Padmanabhan, director uye anotungamira kutungamira kwekutakura uye zvinhu kuCrisil Infrastructure Advisory. "Chimiro ndechekuti zvimwe zvekugadzira zvinogona kubva kuChina kuenda kuIndia kwenguva pfupi."
Nepo kukwira kwemitengo isina kuchena nekuda kwekusawirirana kuri pakati peUS neIran kwaive kwenguva pfupi, kubuda kwekoronavirus uye kubuda kwakatemwa nenyika dzeOpec kwaunza chinhu chekusagadzikana.
"Kunyangwe mitengo yemafuta yakadzikira, mutengo wekuchinjana (rupee uchipikisana nedhora) uri kukwira, izvo zviri kukonzerawo kukwira kwemitengo. Isu tinogarika kana rupee iri 65-70 padhora. Sezvo chikamu chikuru chemari yedu, kusanganisira iyo yemafuta ekufambisa nendege, inobhadharwa nemadhora, mari yekunze chinhu chakakosha pamitengo yedu, "akadaro mumwe mukuru pane imwe kambani yebhajeti yeNew Delhi.
Kuve nechokwadi, kudzokororwa mukudiwa kwemafuta kunogona zvakare kukwidza mitengo inogona kukurudzira inflation uye kukuvadza kudiwa.
Mitengo yemafuta yakakwira ine zvakare kukanganisa kwakananga kuburikidza nekugadzirwa kwakakwira uye mitengo yekufambisa uye inokwidza kukwira kwechikafu. Chero kuedza kudzikisa mutoro wevatengi nekudzikisa mutero wepeturu nedhiziri kungakanganisa kuunganidzwa kwemari.
Ravindra Sonavane, Kalpana Pathak, Asit Ranjan Mishra, Shreya Nandi, Rhik Kundu, Navadha Pandey naGireesh Chandra Prasad vakatsigira nyaya iyi.
Iwe zvino wakanyoreswa kumabhuku edu enhau. Kana ukasawana chero email kubva kudivi redu, ndapota tarisa iyo spam folda.
Nguva yekutumira: Kubvumbi-28-2021