Kutariswa kwemusika: Kubva muna Ndira kusvika Gumiguru we2022, kuita kwese kwemusika weChina petroleum coke kwakanaka, uye mutengo wepetroleum coke unopa maitiro e "kukwira - kudonha - kugadzikana". Ichitsigirwa nekudiwa kwemvura yakadzika, mutengo wepetroleum coke muchikamu chekupedzisira wadonha, asi uchiri padanho repamusoro. Muna 2022, petroleum coke supply yakawedzera zvishoma kubva pakota yapfuura. Nekudaro, nekuda kwekukanganisa kweMitambo yeOlympic Games, kukwira kwemitengo yemafuta epasi rose, uye kudzivirira nekudzora denda, zvigadziriso zvinocheka kugadzirwa mukota yekutanga pamberi pehurongwa. Kugadzirwa kwakadzoreredzwa zvishoma nezvishoma muchikamu chechipiri, nepo huwandu hukuru hwekupinzwa kunze kwepetroleum coke, yepakati nepamusoro sarufa yakawedzera, yakaderera sulfur coke supply ichiri yakasimba. Kugadzirwa kwearuminiyamu ye electrolytic munzvimbo dzakaderera dzerwizi kazhinji kwakachengetedza kukura, uye kugerwa kwemagetsi muSichuan, Yunnan nedzimwe nzvimbo dzenzvimbo kwakakonzera kuderedzwa kwekugadzirwa, uye mutengo wealuminium waigara wakagadzikana. Kusasimba kudiwa kwecarburizer, graphite electrode, uye kuwedzera kudiwa kwezvinhu zveanode zvakakonzera kusiyaniswa kwemitengo yepakati uye yakaderera sulfur petroleum coke munzvimbo dzemuno. Fuel petroleum coke yakakanganiswa zvakanyanya nemusika wepasi rose. Iyo yakakwirira-sarufa coke inoshandiswa musimende nemamwe maindasitiri yakarembera yakatsikitsira pasi kwenguva yakareba. Kupinzwa kwemafuta epamusoro-sarufa coke kubva kuSaudi Arabia neUnited States kwadzikira, asi kutengeswa kweVenezuelan petroleum coke kwakawedzerwa nenhamba huru yekunze.
Mutengo chiito
I. Pakati uye yakakwira sulfur petroleum coke: Kubva muna Ndira kusvika Gumiguru 2022, mutengo wemusika wepetroleum coke muChina wakaratidza maitiro e "kukwira - kudonha - kugadzikana". Kubva munaGumiguru 19, mutengo wepetroleum coke waive 4581 yuan/ton, wakakwira 63.08% zvichienzaniswa nekutanga kwegore. Kubva munaNdira kusvika Kubvumbi, nekuda kwezvikonzero zvakati wandei, sezvirambidzo zvekugadzira panguva yeChando Olympics, zvirambidzo zvekufambisa nekuda kwedenda, uye kukwira kwemitengo yesimba repasi rose yakakanganiswa nedambudziko reRussia-Ukraine, kukwenenzvera mitengo yekunatsa kwakawedzera zvakazara. . Nekuda kweizvozvo, mayuniti ekubikira ezvekunatsa akawanda akaderedza kugadzirwa, uye mamwe mayuniti ekunatsa akamisa kugadzirisa pachine nguva. Nekuda kweizvozvo, kuwanikwa kwemusika kwakadzikira zvakanyanya uye mitengo yecoke yakakwira zvakanyanya. Mukuwedzera, mamwe mafinetsi ari pedyo nerwizi anopa kugadzirwa kusina kunaka kwe sulfur petroleum coke, mutengo wepetroleum coke zvishoma nezvishoma wakawedzera pasi peiyo index; Kubva muna Chivabvu, mayuniti ekubikira anga avharwa uye kuderedzwa kugadzirwa akatangazve kugadzira zvakateerana. Zvisinei, kuti vaderedze mutengo, mamwe mafekitari akatenga oiri yemutengo wakaderera kuti igadzirwe. Nekuda kweizvozvo, iyo petroleum coke index pamusika yadzikira, uye huwandu hukuru hwepetroleum coke hwakatengwa kunze kwenyika hwasvika pachiteshi, kunyanya kuunza pakati-yakakwira sulfur petroleum coke kubva kuVenezuela, United States, Russia, Canada nedzimwe nyika. . Asi kunyanya muvanadium. 500PPM yepakati uye yakakwira sulfur petroleum coke, uye indasitiri yepasi pevhu yealuminium yakatevedzana yakadzora zvinhu zvekutevera, yakakwira vanadium (vanadium> 500PPM) mutengo wepetroleum coke wakadonha zvakanyanya, uye mutsauko wemutengo pakati pepasi vanadium uye yakakwira vanadium petroleum coke yakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma. . Kubva munaChikumi, sezvo mutengo wepetroleum coke uchiramba uchidzika, mabhizinesi epasi pekabhoni akapinda mumusika kuti atenge. Zvisinei, sezvo mutengo wepetroleum coke yakasvibirira unoramba wakakwirira kwenguva yakareba gore rino, kuderera kwemutengo wepasi kwakakura, uye vazhinji vavo vanotenga pazvinodiwa, uye mutengo wepakati uye wepamusoro sulfur petroleum coke inochengetedza kuvhunduka.
Ii. Yakaderera-sarufa petroleum Coke: Kubva munaNdira kusvika Chikumi, iyo anode zvinhu kugona yakawedzera, kudiwa kwemusika kwakawedzera zvakanyanya, uye kudiwa kwepasi-sarufa petroleum coke kwakawedzera zvakanyanya. MunaEpril, yakakanganiswa nekutarirwa kuvharwa kweCNOOC refinery yekugadzirisa, mutengo wepasi-sulfur petroleum coke wakaramba uchigara wakakwirira; Kubva July, yakakwirira tembiricha simba rationing, yakadzika simbi chigayo pamusika kuita murombo, kugadzirwa kuderedza, kugadzirwa kuturika, kudzika girafu magetsi anofanira kuva mamiriro ezvinhu aya, kuwedzera kugadzirwa kuderedza, chikamu shutdown, zvakaipa zvinhu musika yakaderera sulfur petroleum coke mutengo rutsigiro ndiko. shoma, yakaderera sarufa coke mutengo wakadonha zvakanyanya; Kubva munaGunyana, Zuva reNyika uye Mid-Autumn Mutambo zvasvika mumwe mushure meumwe. Nzvimbo dzepasi pemvura dzakatsigira mutengo wakaderera wesarufa coke kuti ukwire zvishoma, asi nekusvika kweiyo hombe makumi maviri, iyo yakadzika inogashira zvinhu zvine hungwaru, uye yakaderera sulfur petroleum coke mutengo wakaramba wakadzikama, uye zvimwe zvigadziriso zvakaitwa.
Panyaya yemafuta coke, muna 2022, mitengo yesimba repasi rose ichakwira, mitengo yekunze icharamba yakakwira uye isingachinjiki kwenguva yakareba, mutengo wenguva refu wepamusoro-sarufa pellet coke uchadzoserwa, kupinza kweiyo yakakwira-sarufa mafuta coke. kubva kuSaudi Arabia neUnited States zvichadzikira, uye mutengo weVenezuelan petroleum coke uchave wakadzikira, saka kupinza kunowedzera musika. Mutengo wepasi sarufa projectile coke wakakwira, uye chiratidzo chekudiwa chepetroleum coke mumusika wemafuta egirazi chakagadziriswa.
Rutivi rwekupa
1. Kugona kwezvikwata zvekubika zvakanonoka kwakawedzera zvishoma kubva munaJanuary kusvika munaOctober muna 2022. Kuchinja kwehutano kwakasimbiswa munaSeptember, apo seti ye500,000 tons / year coking unit muShandong yakamiswa uye seti ye 1.2 mamiriyoni / gore coking unit. muNorthwest China yakaiswa mukugadzirwa.
Ii. Kugadzirwa kwepetroleum coke yeChina muna Ndira-Gunyana 2022 kwakawedzera ne2.13% zvichienzaniswa nemunaNdira-Gunyana 2021, umo kuzvidyira kwakasvika matani 2,773,600, kuwedzera kwe14.88% zvichienzaniswa nenguva imwe chete muna 2021, kunyanya nekuti kugadzirwa kwemayuniti maviri matsva ekubika muShandong akaiswa mukushanda uye akatangazve muna Chikumi 2021 naNovember 2021, zvichiteerana. Petroleum coke supply mumusika yakawedzera zvakanyanya; Nekudaro, mukati megore rose, kuwedzera kwekugadzirwa kwepetroleum coke kunonyanya kuve mukati uye yakakwira sulfur petroleum coke, zvakanyanya nekuda kwekukwira kwemutengo wemafuta asina kuchena uye kuwedzera kwemutengo wekunatsa kwezvicherwa. Mamwe mafinefiri anoshandisa yakaderera-mutengo mafuta asina kuchena kudzikisa mutengo, uye petroleum coke inoshandiswa seyakagadzirwa-chigadzirwa cheiyo coking unit, izvo zvisina kunanga zvinotungamira mukudzikira kweiyo index yemusika wepetroleum coke. Zvinoenderana nehuwandu hweYinfu, kugadzirwa kwepakati uye yakakwira sulfur petroleum coke munaNdira-Gunyana 2022 kwakawedzera ne2.38% zvichienzaniswa nemunaNdira-Gunyana 2021.
Iii. Huwandu hweinotengeswa petroleum coke kubva kunze kwaNdira kusvika Nyamavhuvhu 2022 i9.1273 miriyoni matani, gore-pa-gore kuwedzera kwe5.16%. Sekureva kwaBacuan Yinfu, huwandu hweiyo petroleum coke inotengeswa kunze kwenyika inotarisirwa kuramba ichiwedzera kubva munaGunyana kusvika pakupera kwegore, uye kupihwa kweiyo petroleum coke inotengeswa kunze kwenyika inotarisirwa kuramba ichiwedzera.
Demand side
I. Maererano nealuminium carbon market, mutengo we electrolytic aluminium pamagumo emutsara wakashanduka kusvika pakati pe18,000-19000 yuan / ton, uye nzvimbo yose yepurofiti ye electrolytic aluminium industry ichiripo. Iyo yakadzika pasi pearuminiyamu kabhoni musika inotanga kushanda padanho repamusoro-refu, uye musika wese une kudiwa kwakanaka kwepetroleum coke. Zvisinei, iri pasi pekutengesa kwe "mutengo mumwe chete wekugadzirisa mumwedzi", pamwe chete nemutengo wepamusoro wenguva refu yepetroleum coke yakasvibirira, zvichiita kuti kudhura kukuru kuwedzere uye kunyanya kudiwa kwekutenga.
Iyo yakadzika graphite electrode musika inotengwa zvakanyanya pakudiwa. Kubva munaChikunguru kusvika Nyamavhuvhu, nekuda kwekukanganisa kwekushisa kwakanyanya, mamwe misika yesimbi inocheka kugadzirwa kana kumisa kugadzirwa. Rutivi rwekugovera rwemagraphite electrode mabhizinesi akadzikisa kugadzirwa, zvichikonzera kudzikira kwakanyanya mukudiwa kwemusika wegraphite electrode. Carburizer musika kudiwa kwakagadzikana; Hurumende inotsigira zvakasimba kuvandudzwa kwemabhizimisi matsva emagetsi. Kugona kwekugadzira kwemusika weanode zvinhu kwakawedzera nekukurumidza, uye kudiwa kwepetroleum coke kwakawedzera zvakanyanya. Kuti achengetedze mari, mamwe mabhizinesi akagadzira nzira nyowani dzekutsiva yakaderera-sarufa petroleum coke nepakati-yakakwira sulfur petroleum coke, nokudaro kuderedza mari.
Iii. Panyaya yemafuta coke, mutengo wepasi rose wesimba muna 2022 wakakwira, mutengo wekunze wanga uchikwira uye uchinyungudika kwenguva yakareba, mutengo wenguva refu wepamusoro-sarufa pellet coke unopindurwa, uye kutengeserana kwemusika kuri pakati, nepo misika yepakati-yakaderera sulfur pellet coke yakagadzikana
Future market forecast
1. Kubva pamaonero epetroleum coke supply, musika wepetroleum coke unotarisirwa kuramba uchiwedzera, uye huwandu hwemayuniti achangobva kuvakwa ekoki muchikamu chekupedzisira anoiswa mukugadzirwa zvakatevedzana. Zvinotarisirwa kuti yepakati uye yakakwira sulfur petroleum coke ichatonga, asi mazhinji acho anotarisirwa kushandiswa kuzvishandisa, izvo zvinopa mashoma ekuwedzera kumusika. Mabhizinesi emudzimba 'kudiwa kwepetroleum coke kucharamba kuchikwira, uye huwandu hweinotengeswa peturu coke inotarisirwa kuramba ichikura.
2. Kubva pakuona kwekudiwa kwemvura yakadzika, Bachuan Yinfu anofanotaura kuti kudiwa kwepetroleum coke muindasitiri yepasi kucharamba kuchiwedzera pakupera kwa2022 uye 2023. Pasi pesimba rekunetsana kwenyika dzakawanda uye kuderera kunotevera kwekugadzirwa kwemafuta asina kuchena neSaudi. Arabia neOpec, mutengo wemafuta asina kuchena unotarisirwa kuramba wakakwira, chikamu chemutengo chinotsigirwa zvakanaka, uye kugadzirwa kwearuminiyamu ye electrolytic inotarisirwa kuramba ichikwira, uye kudiwa kwese kwepetroleum coke muindasitiri kuri kuramba kuchiratidza kukura. . Anode zvinhu musika mari itsva inokurumidza, kudiwa kwepetroleum coke kunotarisirwa kuramba kuchiwedzera; Mutengo wemarasha unotarisirwa kuchinjika mukati mechikamu chinodzoreka pasi pesimba rezvematongerwo enyika macroeconomic. Iko kudiwa kwemusika kwegirazi, simende, zvidyarwa zvemagetsi, maelectrodes uye carburizing agents anotarisirwa kuramba ari pakati.
3. Mitemo yekudzivirira nekudzora denda inotarisirwa kuramba iine simba guru mune dzimwe nzvimbo, kunyanya kurambidza kufamba kwemotokari. Iyo yakasanganiswa yekuyerwa kwemagetsi uye masimba ekudzora mashandisirwo emagetsi anotarisirwa kunge achine pesvedzero mune dzimwe nzvimbo, uye kukanganisa kwese pamusika kunotarisirwa kuve kushoma.
Pakazara, zvinotarisirwa kuti kupera kwa2022 uye 2023 petroleum coke mitengo icharamba yakakwira uye isingachinji. Zvinotarisirwa kuti mutengo mukuru wepetroleum coke i6000-8000 yuan/ton ye low sulfur coke (inenge 0.5% sulfur), 3400-5500 yuan/tani yepakati sulfur coke (inenge 3.0% sulfur, mukati me500 vanadium), uye yepakati nesarufa coke (inenge 3.0% sarufa, vanadium> 500) mutengo 2500-4000 yuan/tani, yakakwirira sulfur coke (inenge 4.5% general zvinhu) mutengo 2000-3200 yuan/ton.
Nguva yekutumira: Nov-14-2022